散户投资者推动中国股市上涨

Chinese equities conquered all during the first quarter of 2015, as domestic retail investors betting on stimulus fuelled a rally that analysts have already dubbed a new stock market bubble.

中国股市在2015年第一季度傲视群雄，押注经济刺激措施出台的散户投资者推动了股市上扬，分析师已称此为一次新的股市泡沫。

The Shanghai market has gained 16 per cent this year, despite a 1 per cent slip yesterday, and has outperformed all other global equity markets. The smaller Shenzhen Composite has fared even better, rising almost 40 per cent, while the ChiNext index of mostly tech and health small-caps has jumped nearly two-thirds.

虽然昨天下滑了1%，但上海股市今年已上涨16%，表现优于全球其他所有主要股票市场。规模较小的深证综指(Shenzhen Composite)表现更佳，上涨近40%，而主要为科技和健康医疗小型股的创业板(ChiNext)指数已上涨近三分之二。

“The Chinese market is on fire right now,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG. “There is rampant speculation coming through.”

IG首席市场策略师克里斯?韦斯顿(Chris Weston)说：“中国市场目前很兴奋，显示出投机猖獗的迹象。”

The CSI 300, an index combining Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks, rose above 4,000 this week for the first time since early 2008. But it remains well below the 5,688 level reached at the height of China’s 2007 equity bubble.

涵盖沪深两市的沪深300指数(CSI 300)在本周突破4000点，这是自2008年初以来的头一次，但仍远低于2007年中国股市泡沫最严重时达到的5688点的高位。

The current rally, now more than six months old, has been driven by China’s growing army of local retail investors. Last week, more than 1.1m stock trading accounts were opened, a new record.

目前本轮反弹已经超过半年时间，受到了中国日益壮大的本地散户投资大军的推动。上周新增股票交易账户超过110万，创下新的纪录。

Fittingly, the best performing stock in China this year is Shanghai DZH, which provides financial data terminals. It has risen almost 400 per cent in 2015. Other big movers include Wenfeng Great Wall, a retailer up 200 per cent, and Gold Mantis, an interior decorator that has more than doubled.

今年表现最优异的股票是上海股市的大智慧(DZH)，该公司提供金融数据终端。2015年这只股票上涨了近400%。其他涨幅较大的包括文峰股份(Wenfeng Great World)，这家零售商股价上涨了200%，还有建筑装饰公司金螳螂(Gold Mantis)，其股价已翻了一倍以上。

Many Chinese investors are betting on more economic stimulus and easier access to liquidity as Beijing seeks to boost flagging growth. Earlier this week the government announced a package of new measures to support the housing market, including lower minimum mortgage downpayments.

随着中国政府寻求推动疲弱的增长，许多中国投资者正押注政府将推出更多经济刺激措施，以及未来将更容易获得流动性。本周早些时候中国政府宣布了一系列旨在支持房地产市场的新措施，其中包括降低房贷首付最低比例。

The People’s Bank of China has already cut interest rates twice since November, but many economists expect more loosening to come. HSBC predicts rates will be lowered another 50 basis points this year, while commercial lenders will be required to hold less cash with the central bank.

自去年11月以来中国央行已经连续两次降息，但许多经济学家预计还会有更多的宽松措施。汇丰(HSBC)预计中国的利率今年还会下调50个基点，商业银行向央行缴纳的存款准备金也将降低。

“We think that the sharp drop-off in economic activity since the start of the year, along with lower inflation, will encourage greater action from the PBoC over the coming months,” said Capital Economics. “This will most likely push equities even higher.”

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)表明：“我们认为自今年年初以来经济活动的大幅降低，加上较低的通货膨胀率，将促使中国央行在未来几个月采取更多行动。这将很可能推动股市继续上涨。”

But many analysts warn that the stock market has already dislocated from fundamentals and risks hitting a wall. Daily turnover in the market has spiked, while margin debt is rising at a record pace, according to BNP Paribas estimates. The recent initial public offering of Orient Securities, a broker, attracted $150bn of orders for just $1.6bn of stock — an indication of feverish appetite to trade new listings.

但许多分析师警告称，股市已经脱离了基本面，很可能撞上南墙。据法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)估计，随着中国股市的日成交量飙升，保证金借款也正以创纪录的速度上升。在券商东方证券(Orient Securities)最近的首次公开发行(IPO)中，仅16亿美元的股票发行量就吸引了1500亿美元的投资，显示出投资者对交易新股的狂热兴趣。

“The torrid pace of speculative activity suggests a climax may already be relatively close to hand,” wrote Richard Iley at BNP Paribas.

法国巴黎银行的理查德?伊利(Richard Iley)写道：“投机活动的狂热意味着顶点或许已近在咫尺。”

During the past week, there were signs that international investors were beginning to cash out.

过去一周有迹象表明国际投资者开始套现。